Even if you managed to tax the US super wealthy and businesses as you describe, you are enabling a local UBI for a global problem. Where does that leave the rest of the world?
Same place they’re in now anyway? It’ll need to be global to actually solve the issue instead of just pushing it down the line.
There’s probably no clean way to make that happen unless countries actually co-operate and deal with the issue, instead of just trying to save themselves the biggest slice of the pie they can while it’s still an option… but countries that don’t do SOMETHING like UBI or similar, will likely be in for a lot of trouble in the near-ish future, so the pressure will build, especially as some countries are way more likely to get in on that sort of planning early and then the rest of the world gets to watch them surviving and thriving.
Just like any other systemic change… it’s a snowball.
The choice isn’t “do we need to change how things are done”, it’s just “do we want to help the snowball grow, or be crushed by it as it absorbs us anyway”
Would it be the same place, though? You'd see more wealth extraction across borders as AI from abroad (like the US) takes over the economy, without the option of taxing it.
Could be, but that's still the same situation that exists now. They can ALREADY do that... and it doesn't really change the math, since this is a global issue, not a local one.
Short answer, the global south is going to get wrecked, very badly. Eventually they will get to the otherside of it but 100s of millions will be unemployed by this over the next 20 years, possibly over a billion by the end.
it will definitely be MESSY if the world's leaders don't start getting their shit together and growing into a global economy instead of a group of tiny economies that feed on each other, or... well there are a few structures that MIGHT work... but they're all messy, tbh, and who knows which one it'll be... but... things will be CHANGING, regardless haha oy.
I don't really see them doing so. The only way to deal with this would be to get ahead of it. And that ship has probably already sailed, now it will begin to move too fast for all but the nimblest and most responsive governments to have a hope of keeping up. Cleaning up the wreckage will be the main job, that and preventing societal collapse due to a variety of causes. The end state will probably be something quite different that emerges organically from the circumstances. We likely don't even have the terminology to describe it yet.
Great article, only had one problem. As the value of goods, services, and assets collapses, the value of money itself decouples completely. So the idea of taxing production to fund UBI, in the later stages of this, will probably break down. The money will be getting rendered useless so fast, the government would have to change the tax laws constantly or it would have to print and destroy money at a furious pace to attempt to control its value. Becomes a losing game at some point.
Oh if UBI (or something similar) actually takes off (and I think it will, due to necessity eventually), it will absolutely start an inflation spiral, BUT, by then people would be working because they want to and the whole system would be basically playing with play money in most ways… so the path to ditching money for most things gets closer, or we find another shift to make.
The alternative is trying to keep the spiraling current system in place with Band-Aids and spite as long as possible while everyone starves…so I’d rather try and continue to work on better solutions in the meantime. It’s not so much a solution over the next few hundred years… but… people are starving and going homeless NOW… so… one step at a time.
Oh it or something like it will be absolutely necessary, unless the wealthy like mobs of pitchfork waving people coming for them. But it is papering over a system on its last legs. You break the capital labor chain and you break capitalism itself. Capital is a claim on future labor, and if labor has no value, then neither does capital. What replaces it, I dunno exactly, I have guesses, but that is all they are. But a new system of the world will be required.
I did CONSIDER extending into the potential next steps as I see them... but it was already a pretty long 2-parter for me, and rants about anarchy don't fit all that much with my usual talk about AI... at least not as specifically hahahaaaa.
Stepping stones. Skipping too much steps just means people fight instead of engage (or at least, that's my hope haha)
That's true, we should probably pause and recognize how far the discourse has already traveled. UBI was considered fringe commie talk a decade ago, and now it is considered inevitable by many of the richest people on earth. The discourse has already moved alot and the effects have yet to really start arriving. What seems radical and unlikely now may one day seem as common sense and inevitable.
You had me until "enough for 250-500 a month for every US adult. Not luxury. Stability. The difference between “I can make rent” and “I can’t.”"
I don't know what decade/town you're living in but a one BR apartment near me costs $1500-$2000. For UBI to be sustenance level, it's going to have be $2000-$3000
True under current values. But significant deflation will occur, in 20 years you probably could live pretty ok on 500 a month, in real dollar terms. Now what that number is in 2045 after rounds of deflation and inflation? No telling, could be 10k a month on the number, but the buying power would be like 500 today.
Even if you managed to tax the US super wealthy and businesses as you describe, you are enabling a local UBI for a global problem. Where does that leave the rest of the world?
Same place they’re in now anyway? It’ll need to be global to actually solve the issue instead of just pushing it down the line.
There’s probably no clean way to make that happen unless countries actually co-operate and deal with the issue, instead of just trying to save themselves the biggest slice of the pie they can while it’s still an option… but countries that don’t do SOMETHING like UBI or similar, will likely be in for a lot of trouble in the near-ish future, so the pressure will build, especially as some countries are way more likely to get in on that sort of planning early and then the rest of the world gets to watch them surviving and thriving.
Just like any other systemic change… it’s a snowball.
The choice isn’t “do we need to change how things are done”, it’s just “do we want to help the snowball grow, or be crushed by it as it absorbs us anyway”
Would it be the same place, though? You'd see more wealth extraction across borders as AI from abroad (like the US) takes over the economy, without the option of taxing it.
Could be, but that's still the same situation that exists now. They can ALREADY do that... and it doesn't really change the math, since this is a global issue, not a local one.
Short answer, the global south is going to get wrecked, very badly. Eventually they will get to the otherside of it but 100s of millions will be unemployed by this over the next 20 years, possibly over a billion by the end.
it will definitely be MESSY if the world's leaders don't start getting their shit together and growing into a global economy instead of a group of tiny economies that feed on each other, or... well there are a few structures that MIGHT work... but they're all messy, tbh, and who knows which one it'll be... but... things will be CHANGING, regardless haha oy.
I don't really see them doing so. The only way to deal with this would be to get ahead of it. And that ship has probably already sailed, now it will begin to move too fast for all but the nimblest and most responsive governments to have a hope of keeping up. Cleaning up the wreckage will be the main job, that and preventing societal collapse due to a variety of causes. The end state will probably be something quite different that emerges organically from the circumstances. We likely don't even have the terminology to describe it yet.
Great article, only had one problem. As the value of goods, services, and assets collapses, the value of money itself decouples completely. So the idea of taxing production to fund UBI, in the later stages of this, will probably break down. The money will be getting rendered useless so fast, the government would have to change the tax laws constantly or it would have to print and destroy money at a furious pace to attempt to control its value. Becomes a losing game at some point.
Oh if UBI (or something similar) actually takes off (and I think it will, due to necessity eventually), it will absolutely start an inflation spiral, BUT, by then people would be working because they want to and the whole system would be basically playing with play money in most ways… so the path to ditching money for most things gets closer, or we find another shift to make.
The alternative is trying to keep the spiraling current system in place with Band-Aids and spite as long as possible while everyone starves…so I’d rather try and continue to work on better solutions in the meantime. It’s not so much a solution over the next few hundred years… but… people are starving and going homeless NOW… so… one step at a time.
Oh it or something like it will be absolutely necessary, unless the wealthy like mobs of pitchfork waving people coming for them. But it is papering over a system on its last legs. You break the capital labor chain and you break capitalism itself. Capital is a claim on future labor, and if labor has no value, then neither does capital. What replaces it, I dunno exactly, I have guesses, but that is all they are. But a new system of the world will be required.
I did CONSIDER extending into the potential next steps as I see them... but it was already a pretty long 2-parter for me, and rants about anarchy don't fit all that much with my usual talk about AI... at least not as specifically hahahaaaa.
Stepping stones. Skipping too much steps just means people fight instead of engage (or at least, that's my hope haha)
That's true, we should probably pause and recognize how far the discourse has already traveled. UBI was considered fringe commie talk a decade ago, and now it is considered inevitable by many of the richest people on earth. The discourse has already moved alot and the effects have yet to really start arriving. What seems radical and unlikely now may one day seem as common sense and inevitable.
You had me until "enough for 250-500 a month for every US adult. Not luxury. Stability. The difference between “I can make rent” and “I can’t.”"
I don't know what decade/town you're living in but a one BR apartment near me costs $1500-$2000. For UBI to be sustenance level, it's going to have be $2000-$3000
oh that's JUST from the ultra rich being taxed, not the full amount. that could definitely be clearer though... I'll edit a bit!
fixed and hopefully less weirdly worded now! thanks for catching that
True under current values. But significant deflation will occur, in 20 years you probably could live pretty ok on 500 a month, in real dollar terms. Now what that number is in 2045 after rounds of deflation and inflation? No telling, could be 10k a month on the number, but the buying power would be like 500 today.